Prospect Fancy Stats

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Once again, twitter has become toxic. It’s driven me away, and I probably won’t come back before the trade deadline. If there’s another meltdown then, I probably won’t come back for even longer. Still, there’s been a lot of prospect slander on my TL, and I’m not having it. Local media personalities say that our goalie prospects suck, then claim to have sources around the NHL that tell them these things. I’d love to hear their analysis, and to see who their sources are, but I know that it won’t happen. Instead, I’ll try to give actual analysis as to why our prospects are #actuallygood. Here are some stats on three prospects that have performed very well this season, and why they deserve your recognition!

All info comes from prospect-stats.com

Remember when someone said that we had no good goalies in the pipeline? Let me tell you about Jeremy Helvig. Out of goalies that have played more than 10 games, Helvig is first in the OHL in save percentage with a .920. He has started in 48 games this season, which is second in the league to Guelph’s Anthony Popovich (49). Helvig has broken plenty of franchise records this season, most of them having to do with wins. He’s been one of the best goalies ever to play for the Frontenacs, and deserves a contract. His low danger save percentage is .954, good for first among goalies with more than 20 games started. The Canes have had a lot of trouble with low danger shots for a long time now, so it’s good to see Helvig stopping the shots he should stop. For medium danger, he’s at .889, also good for first in the league. He struggles a bit with high danger shots, however, only having a .765 save percentage on high danger shots. Still, Helvig deserves to be considered a legitimate prospect for the Canes. He’ll take a few years to develop, but could be a promising NHL goalie once he hits his stride.

One interesting prospect is Stelio Mattheos. He has been given first line minutes this season, and has excelled. Mattheos has 72 points in 55 games this season, an 11 point improvement on last season’s numbers in 14 less games. He’s slowed down a bit as of late, mostly due to Brandon trading away Kale Clague and Tanner Kaspick. Mattheos averages just slightly over 14 minutes a game, and has still been able to produce in bunches. He averages 1.35 points per game, and two thirds of his assists are primary assists. His expected goals numbers are stellar, at 1.24. In terms of primary points, Mattheos is eighteenth in the WHL. Only 12 of his 72 points have been secondary assists, which is fantastic to see. It shows that he moves the puck well, and sets his teammates up for goals right away. He’s the second youngest player in the top 20 in that category, so that’s encouraging. Jaret Anderson-Dolan, ranked 20th, is younger. To have a younger forward producing that well is special, and a good sign for the future. Mattheos was drafted as a two way forward with the ability to play in all situations, similar to Warren Foegele. This season, he’s been dangerous on the penalty kill, just as Foegele has. Mattheos still needs another year in juniors to work on all aspects of his game. He’s a jack of all trades, but a master of none. He’s already shown growth on the offensive side of his game, but will still need another year or two before he’s ready for an NHL role.

Morgan Geekie looks to be ready for the AHL after this season. He’s been getting over 16 minutes of ice time a night, and has been used heavily on the power play. He’s been producing consistently, and looks to have outgrown the WHL a bit. All of his junior stats look to translate to the NHL, and an expected goals/60 total of 1.16 is really solid for a 19 year old. Geekie has gotten a little faster this season, but is still a little slow. That’s the only thing that I could see holding him back from coming to the AHL next season. He’s also 24th in the WHL in terms of primary point totals. Five players in the top 25 are younger than Geekie, which is another good thing to see. It shows that he’s performing just as well as some players with another year of WHL experience.

 

 

1 Comment
  1. randy yale says

    Matt. Helvig is an excellent prospect. In addition to the quantifiable skills you mention (excellent LDS%), he has what traditionalists call intangibles. So much so that the Kingston organization has gone all in by trading away something like 15 future picks to bring in more talent in an attempt to win the Memorial Cup this season. The GM has specifically said the moves were made because the Fronteacs have a “winning” goalie. Also, Helvig has superior stamina. Once this season he was in goal three consecutive days–winning all three times. This past weekend he played Sunday and Monday an stopped 50 of 53 shots during the 27 hour period. Canes Twitter is often non-sensical, that is being proven by negativity regarding the organization’s goalie prospects.

    Good points on Mattheo as well. A prediction: the 2020 Canes will have four lines with two-way ability. While it won’t be a traditional fourth line, the line getting the “checking” assignments will be Foegele/Roy/Mattheos.

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